Dynamics

Lin Xueping | Why is the road of Chinese machine tools getting narrower and narrower| Floating and Sinking China Machine Tool Road

Release time:2020-12-16

With the escalation of the technology war between China and the United States, the chip supply disruption seems to have overturned the black domino effect. From chips to software, from materials to semiconductor equipment, one after another, the cards have been flipped upwards. Worries are spreading like peeling onions layer by layer, making people deeply worried about machine tools. As an industrial machine tool, China's machine tool industry has always been large but not strong, not weak. It is difficult to make progress in high-end equipment, and it is eroded by machine tools in Taiwan, China. The history of Chinese machine tools is closely linked to China's industrial system. The 156 engineering projects during the First Five Year Plan period and the construction of the third line towards the western region have basically established the framework of China's industrial system. Among them, 18 state-owned machine tool factories, which can be called the Eighteen Arhat, once played a decisive role in calming the sea. However, this system formed under the planned economy has been unstable after forty years and has not been seriously repaired, and even many places have been damaged. After joining the WTO, the open and rapidly growing global market injected a shot of adrenaline into this system. A global patch that allows it to sprint forward for another decade. However, such a system is ultimately fragile. In deeper market competition, overall decline is also inevitable. In those days, China's machine tool industry was 18 Arhat, whose final destination was basically bleak. Either merged into large industrial groups or acquired by private enterprises, this indicates that only Jinan Second Machine Tool Factory can survive bankruptcy and closure. In addition to Jinan No. 2 Machine Tool, 18 Arhat of China were basically annihilated, which shows that the Chinese machine tool system has come to an end. Only through rebirth, Chinese machine tools need to reconstruct a completely new system. So, how are global machine tools changing? Why is the road of Chinese machine tools getting narrower and narrower? Gardner's statistical survey on the global machine tool industry shows that global machine tool consumption was $82.1 billion in 2019, the lowest level in the machine tool market since the world began to recover from the global economic recession in 2010. In this downward trend, the proportion of China's machine tool consumption in the world in 2019 fell below 30% for the first time in a decade. In the global economic downturn, the United States consumed $9.7 billion worth of machine tool products in 2019, with little year-on-year decrease. With the return of manufacturing to North America, the consumption pattern of machine tools in the United States has also shown the characteristic of returning to shore manufacturing to meet local consumption. Although Germany's production has declined, both Germany and the United States have increased their share of global machine tool production. Among the top 15 countries and regions in terms of machine tool production, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada are the only countries with an increasing share of global machine tool production, indicating a clear shift in the center of global machine tool production from Asia to Europe. From Gartner's data, it can be seen that machine tool consumption is shifting away from Asia, China's power is becoming weaker, and both the United States and Europe are on the rise. It can be said that the leading positions of Germany and Japan are unbreakable;   And for Chinese machine tools, there is a bigger concern, which is that high-end machine tools cannot be conquered for a long time. In the past fifteen years, the gap between China's high-end machine tool industry and the machine tools of Germany, Japan, and Switzerland has been widening (Jinan Second Machine Tool is the only exception). Shenyang Machine Tool and Dalian Machine Tool, which were once the world's largest and second largest in terms of industry scale, had to undergo debt restructuring, which is just a microcosm of the current situation. The period from 2001 to 2012, twelve years after China's accession to the WTO, was a period of rapid development for the Chinese machine tool industry. During the financial crisis, China rose to become the world's largest producer of machine tools and has maintained this position until now. In 2019, China's machine tool production reached 19.4 billion US dollars, and its global share still reached 23%. However, the machine tool industry in Chinese Mainland is in a serious trade deficit, with an import and export deficit of US $5.4 billion in 2015. China's trade deficit in machine tools ranks 60th globally. According to Gartner's report, the world's largest and second largest economies have the second and first highest machine tool consumption, respectively. However, ironically, among the top 60 global import and export imbalances, China and the United States rank last and second respectively in terms of machine tool trade deficit. In 2017 and 2018, China's trade deficit remained stable at over 5 billion US dollars. It was not until 2019 that this data was eased under the drastic changes in the overall environment, and the trade deficit decreased to 2.8 billion US dollars. China's machine tool exports accounted for approximately 20% in 2019, with the most important markets for centerless grinding machines being Vietnam (10.8%) and India (8.8%). This is highly consistent with the relocation of Chinese factories to Southeast Asia. For many people who believe in the advantage of being a latecomer, the phenomenon of "overtaking on a bend" not only did not occur, but the machine tool also experienced the phenomenon of "derailment on a bend". During the period of 2004-2010, China adopted a new strategy and expanded into overseas markets, with international brand mergers and acquisitions becoming a feast. In addition to Qinchuan Machine Tool's acquisition of UAI, a joint American industrial company specializing in lathe cutting, in the United States, Chongqing Machine Tool's acquisition of PTG, a British company, and the acquisition of screw machine tool technology, major overseas mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese machine tool industry are mostly concentrated in Germany. Shenyang Machine Tool and Beiyi Machine Tool have respectively acquired top brands of gantry milling machines, Hiss and Waldrich Coburg. Hangzhou Machine Tool Factory, which holds a 40% market share in the field of surface grinding machines, has acquired the German grinding machine ABA. Dalian Machine Tool Factory holds a controlling stake in the high-speed milling machine company Zimmermann, which focuses on the aerospace industry. Harbin Measuring Tool Group has acquired the German tool gauge expert KELCH, and Shanghai Machine Tool Factory has acquired the German Wohlenberg lathe. For a moment, it was lively and unparalleled.